Resilience Digest September’25

Key Economic Shifts & Impacts of the Turnberry Compromise

Market Imbalance: US protectionism shields strategic industries while the EU liberalizes markets, undercutting EU exporters’ competitiveness and squeezing margins in autos, machinery, chemicals and SMEs.

Cost & Supply Risks: Heavy EU reliance on US energy and defense imports, plus higher tariffs and logistical delays, drives up input costs, fuels inflation and heightens financial volatility.

Geopolitical Imperative: Intensifying trade politicization and internal EU divisions force diversification into new regions, proactive supply/price risk-scenario planning, and tighter alignment of procurement, treasury and strategy.

Are your export strategies sufficiently diversified in light of asymmetric tariff structures under the US-EU agreement?

How are you adjusting supply chain resilience in response to increased EU dependency on US energy and defense imports?

What communication strategies do you have in place to manage internal and external uncertainty related to shifting trade regimes?

How is your leadership team aligning across strategy, public affairs, and operations in response to increasingly politicized trade frameworks?

Strategic trade vulnerability: Disruption in the Strait of Malacca threatens a key artery for global and European supply chains, making contingency planning essential.
Operational and cost impact: Increased piracy drives higher freight, insurance, and security expenses, directly affecting business continuity and profitability.
Crew safety and legal exposure: Heightened security threats raise duty-of-care obligations and potential liability for companies operating in affected regions.

How does your organization assess and regularly update the risk profile for critical maritime routes such as the Strait of Malacca, including piracy incidents and regional security threats?

What contingency plans are in place if the Strait of Malacca becomes impassable or too risky — including alternative shipping routes, air freight capacity, or supplier relocation?

Operational and supply chain disruptions: More frequent and severe climate-related disasters cause sudden shutdowns of operations, transport delays, and reputational damage.
Rising costs and legal pressures: Higher insurance premiums, reduced coverage, and stricter climate regulations increase financial and compliance burdens.
Global vulnerability: Even regions with fewer events face growing exposure and security risks from climate impacts.

How is your organization integrating the increasing frequency of climate-related disasters (floods, wildfires, heatwaves) into its business continuity and emergency response planning?

Have you assessed your supply chain’s exposure to regional climate risks and implemented redundant routes, dual sourcing, or local buffers to maintain operations?

What long-term strategies is your organization implementing to reduce climate-related risks, such as investing in resilient infrastructure, diversifying suppliers, or adopting sustainable resource management practices?